Thursday, December 25, 2008

Will mortgages ever be the same?


Posted December 25, 2008 at 13:51 PM
ronlargent
Will the lessons learned from the real estate slowdown spark genuine creativity in marketing and lending to push more sales?
What are the chances that the residential mortgages bought and sold in the secondary markets will revert to the conservative portfolio business that existed before the first securitizations in the early 1980s?
The real estate industry will recover, but it will be different.
Tom Kelly at Inman News has some thoughts on this....and what are yours?
From my viewpoint, I think we will continue to see a continuing interest on the part of lenders in making good loans, but they will be to those that are qualified, using some old measurements. Not too many years ago, the yardstick was that your mortgage payment should not exceed 25% of your gross income. If you made $1000 a month, your mortgage payment could not exceed $250, for example. Over the recentl years, this went to as high as 50% with some lenders...and this was the beginning of the end. Then, lenders started including the 2nd income in the family as a permanet source of income and that was considered in the payment amount. All was good and fine as long as that 2nd income was there. Things changed, though, when the 2nd earner had other things enter in, such a another child, unexpected illness, or college expenses that were not expected. All of a sudden, the 2 family income became 1, and a problem was on the horizon.
So, we will be back to good financing in the future, but for the next few years, the guidelines will be more conservative than in the past 5 years. Now is the time to refinance, if you can....for interest rates are at an all time low.
To discuss this further, give me a call or e-mail ronlargent@kw.com or www.ronlargent.com

Wednesday, December 24, 2008

Oregon's Bottle Bill

Oregon's Bottle Bill....

Posted December 24, 2008 at 19:48 PM

ronlargent

Water Bottles to Soon Join Bottle Bill
If you live in Oregon, you’re probably familiar with idea of shelling out a nickel deposit on a can of soda or a bottle of beer. Starting Jan. 1, you’ll pay those five extra cents every time you buy a bottle of water, too. It’s the first major change to Oregon’s bottle bill in more than three decades.Only in OREGON.
By the way, life in Redding, CA is GREAT !!
Check it out at www.ronlargent.com go to Redding, Our Community.

Wednesday, December 17, 2008

Jazz in Sacramento California

Jazz in Sacramento, CA

Posted December 17, 2008 at 09:28 AM

ronlargent

Good morning everyone,
The year is fast coming to a close and the Thursday evening jazz with Vivian Lee and Friends is ending it's first five months. Before we talk about the big party though we get to talk about a lady who lit up the stage last week. Virginia Ayers Dawson is no stranger to the stage and mic, having done back-up work in Los Angelos in the past. With a room overflowing with family, friends and jazz fans, she sashayed back and forth across the stage, interacting with both the audience and the musicians with ease. Her rich voice and phrasing making each song a story, not just words. Not sticking to the American Songbook she brought some great tunes to life in a jazz vein - Natural Woman, done almost in a conversational tone, Burt Bacharach's What the World Needs Now, and Joe Cocker's signature tune You are So Beautiful. Pianist Reggie Graham joined her and did a funk grooved arrangement of My Funny Valentine. The joy in watching and listening to Virginia is that she is such a free spirit and and it shows when she is on stage. She tells little stories about her many mission trips and intertwines those experiences into her introduction and delivery of the songs. That is the sign of an artist, taking life and making it a part of the music. It adds a new dimension to the lyrics when you can make it personal.
This week, December 18 is our big Holiday blow-out party. Most of the vocalists who have joined me for Vivian Lee and Friends will be there with their favorite Christmas and holiday songs along with other songs in our combined expansive repertoire of vocal jazz. The Sacramento Food Bank will also be there collecting donations and the admission for this special evening is one canned good or other non perishable food item. The evening is from 7-11pm. They have a full dinner menu, drinks, desserts and of course - the music. So join us as we celebrate the holidays and also give something back to the Sacramento community to help those in need. JB's is located inside of the Red Lion Hotel 1401 Arden Way.

Tuesday, December 9, 2008

Cascade Theater...A Christmas Show revue

Cascade Needs Money.....Certainly Not Due to “A Cascade Christmas”


This past weekend I had the good fortune and great pleasure to attend the wonderful Christmas show at the Cascade, "A Cascade Christmas". Having been in the music field as an avocation for 50 years, I can report that this was one of the best "off Broadway" musicals I have ever seen. What James Santos and the Redding Dance Project does each Christmas is truly magnificent. This show could easily be a Branson headliner or a lead in for any of the Las Vegas shows. This musical dance program with gorgeous and appropriate costuming features talent that is not only professional in their performance but is so impressive in terms of how it is presented with "Broadway" quality sets and settings.

The dancers and singers, all of them local talent folks, work for months to make this one of the best shows in the entire North State, and it shows. From the opening City Scene with the women's cast performing over head kicks and ballet type moves to the full cast Carol of the Bells in full and elaborate costumes, the show moved through beautiful renditions of the familiar Christmas songs (The Christmas Song)to excellent solo and small group renditions of Santa music. With the children, many from local dance schools and dance programs, bringing a new and refreshing excitement to the overall program, this was just a delightful evening of wonderful entertainment. The final numbers feature the Dance of the Wooden Soldiers, and this is perfection at its best. The timing and precision needed in this very difficult presentation caused the full house audience to rise in applause in appreciation of what they had just seen. The final Nativity scene was, as always, very well done and a very fitting evening to this Christmas tradition.

If you did not have a chance to join the 9000 folks that were able to see the 2008 presentation, put it on your schedule for next year. James and the Project will be back and I'm sure it will be as good as this year. This is one Redding activity that one cannot miss. It is truly a wonderful show in the beautiful Cascade Theater setting, where there is not a bad seat. See you at the show

Some Thoughts from Gandhi

GANDHI’S FAMOUS LIST OF
SEVEN BLUNDERS OF THE WORLD
THAT LEAD TO VIOLENCE
__________________________

WEALTH WITHOUT WORK

SCIENCE WITHOUT HUMANITY

PLEASURE WITHOUT CONSCIENCE

WORSHIP WITHOUT SACRIFICE (OBEDIENCE)

KNOWLEDGE WITHOUT CHARACTER

POLITICS WITHOUT PRINCIPLE

COMMERCE WITHOUT MORALITY

Tony Perkins and the Family Research Council

Governing from the Muddle

The new President hasn't stepped foot into office, but that doesn't mean his party is reserving judgment. In yesterday's Politico, liberal Democrats openly complained that Obama's appointments are "too moderate." Others, especially Democrats from more conservative states, criticized the party's leadership as "too extreme." So which is it? Has Obama gone soft on his agenda or is he biding his time with the nation's goodwill? While we may hope he governs from the middle, word from his spokesperson, Stephanie Cutter, suggests otherwise. In an op-ed for U.S. News and World Report, columnist Deborah Kotz says Cutter confirmed that Barack Obama will keep his campaign promises on issues like abortion. The President-elect still favors the radical Freedom of Choice Act (FOCA), which will overturn parental involvement and conscience protection laws. After January 20, we can expect him to line the pockets of abortion providers like Planned Parenthood with our hard-earned tax dollars at home and abroad. There is nothing that suggests an Obama Administration will be middle-of-the-road on the life issue. For the latest on the cultural battle lines being drawn, stay tuned to FRC.

Good Advice from Microsoft

5 tips for a safe and happy holiday shopping season

Holiday shopping online is a great way to save time and sometimes money—as long as you take a few precautions to protect yourself from phishing scams and identity theft. Here are five tips for safer shopping on the Internet.

1. Use an updated Web browser. Internet Explorer 7 contains many new features, such as the Phishing Filter, to help you avoid identity theft when you shop online.

2. Make sure you’re on the Web site that you think you’re on. If you use Internet Explorer 7 or higher, you get an extra level of protection with Extended Validation (EV) SSL (Secure Socket Layer) certificates. If your address bar turns green you’ll know that you’re not on a spoofed Web site.

3. Visit trusted sites or use a third-party payment service. Many online shops and auction sites will let you pay with third-party payment services, like PayPal. That way you don't have to turn over your credit card information to an unknown person.

4. Use strong passwords for online shopping retailers and keep your passwords secret.

5. Buy only Genuine Microsoft software. Counterfeit software can corrupt your system, make you lose data, and can lead to identity theft. If Microsoft software is on your holiday gift list this season, you can help make sure you're buying the real thing by reading the Guide to Purchasing Genuine Microsoft software.

Mobile Home Parks for Sale in Redding and Northern California

Mobile Home Parks for Sale in Northern California

Posted December 09, 2008 at 11:57 AM

ronlargent

Mobile Home Parks For Sale in Redding and Northern California

We now have a number of Parks available in the North State.

Redding 33 space at $1,200,000 in a great location near Lake Shasta.

South Redding 16 space on 3.8 acres at $520,000 with lots of room to expand and upgrad. Ideal income-investment opportunity.

Anderson area 26 space Park on 25 acres with lots of potential. Gross of $12,000 month from Park owned mobiles and space rent. Offered at $1,250,000.

These are just 3 of many we have in the North State from Sacramento North, so call or e-mail

ronlargent@kw.com

www.ronlargent.com

Clean Your Cutting Board before the Holidays

How you clean your cutting board depends on what type of material it is. Plastic or glass cutting boards can be cleaned a variety of ways, but one of the quickest and easiest methods is to simply put them in the dishwasher. This will thoroughly clean and sanitize your cutting boards. You can make your own dishwasher detergent using Borax (a natural disinfectant) and washing soda with a distilled white vinegar rinse or simply use a store-bought all-natural detergent.
Step2
Wooden cutting boards are an entirely different matter. They should not be put in the dishwasher because of the potential for cracking and splitting. Also, they should not be submerged in a sink full of water for the same reason. So, how do clean a wooden cutting board? First, let’s look at a little preventative maintenance that should make cleaning and disinfecting your wooden cutting boards easier.
Step3
First, make sure you use a cutting board for chopping fruits and vegetables and a different one for cutting meats. (This goes for wooden, glass or plastic cutting boards) This will prevent cross-contamination. Next, treat your new wooden cutting boards with a food grade mineral oil to prevent the absorption of food particles and liquids. Simply rub the oil on the cutting board and let it soak in. Repeat this process until no more oil can be absorbed. Do not use vegetable oil as it will turn rancid over time. This will need to be repeated about once a month.
Step4
Now that you’ve prepared your cutting board and used it, how do you safely clean it? The best way to clean a wooden cutting board is to scrub the surface (only the surface; do not submerge it in water) with hot soapy water. You can use liquid castile soap or a store bought all-natural dish soap to prevent any extra chemicals from absorbing into your cutting board. Once you have scrubbed it thoroughly, let it dry completely.
Step5
To naturally disinfect your cutting board there are a couple different methods you can use. Once your cutting board is dry, spray the surface with undiluted distilled white vinegar and let it sit for at least 10-30 minutes, then wipe clean. The acetic acid in vinegar is effective at killing bacteria such as E. coli, Salmonella, and Staphylococcus.
Step6
Some studies have shown that using both pure vinegar and hydrogen peroxide is more effective than either one alone. Keep the liquids in separate spray bottles and use one at a time. It doesn’t matter which one you use first. Let each liquid sit on the cutting board for at least ten minutes and then wipe clean. Now, you have a clean, disinfected cutting board without using any harmful chemicals.

Mobile Home Park in North Redding at $1,200,000

33 space in great location just north of Redding, CA near Lake Shasta. This is a real money maker with 90% occupancy. Part of the Park is older and some is new, but a very stable and desirable park. E-mail for details, financials, photos, etc ronlargent@kw.com www.ronlargent.com

Sunday Night Jazz in Sacramento

Good morning everyone,
Well we tried something unique and different and boy was it worth it. Motoshi Kosako, classical and jazz harpist extraordinaire came to town with his quartet of Bill Douglass on bass and bamboo flute, Daryl Van Druff on drums and Joe Berry on sax. A humble and very talented musician, he took us to a place where we did not know that jazz could go. Who would have thought that great improvisational sounds would come from a harp.But I am here to tell you that it does. The evening was filled with mix of originals written by Motoshi.The influences and inpiration for each were varied and widespread. They ranged from gospel inspired ( On The Way Home) to funk ( Babbling of Drunkard) to tender tributes to his wife (Waltz For Terra). As he said himself, music on a harp can be kind of mellow, but once Joe Berry stepped up on the stage things got a little funkier and they swung in a big way. Darlene Tellis, a local vocalist who has sung at the Thursday evening jazz, joined them for Summertime.
He saved the absolute best for last which turned out to be my favorite of the evening. It was a suite titled Place In The Heart. This had different movements, as suites do, first a straight tempo, then later breaking out into a very subtle latin beat. The amazing thing to watch though was that during the last "movement" Motoshi strummed the strings with his right hand like a guitar, while picking out a beautiful melody with his left. It was fascinating to watch him play. One doesn't usually get to see a harp being played up close. Normally it is far away up on a stage in a concert hall
At one point Motoshi stepped out of his performer mode and went into teaching mode, explaining how a harp works and the fact that most of the time it is played in a fashion that reflects all of the white keys on the piano, but once he starts using the pedals (which I did know they had until Sunday night) then the black keys are introduced and it takes on a whole other realm which can encompass jazz. He said that there are not many who want to tackle jazz on a harp because it is very difficult and a different mind set than playing it classically. Aren't we very lucky that he decided to step to the challenge. He will definitely be back and when he does, his is a show that you don't want to miss.
His show like all of the shows in the Sunday evening jazz series are ones not to miss. We have strived to bring the very best in local and regional mainstream improvisational jazz and we invite you to join us every Sunday. JB's has become our local gathering place to make friends with other jazz fans, have a nice dinner, a drink, and listen to America's big contribution to the musical world. Something that has come to be known as America's Art Form - Jazz.
This week the Ron Davis Big Band makes their annual Christmas trek to JB's Lounge. Show time is 5-8pm and the price is $8/$5 kids ten and under. JB's is located inside the Red Lion Hotel, 1401 Arden Way. You can call 916 723-5517 and press 3 or email me at vtlee54@hotmail.com or vtlee54@gmail.com for reservations.

Wednesday, December 3, 2008

Lou Dobbs on CNN

America belongs to each of us, uncluttered and untainted by advertising images, media bias, and corporate greed. It is an America that is full of choices and one in which we take an active role in our community and in our nation. Unfortunately, I'm no longer sure that this is the America in which we live.

Sunday, November 30, 2008

Christy, Tom, Amelia, and Graham in China

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/images/attachement/jpg/site1/20081124/0013729e42ea0a94431220.jpg

Christy, Tom, Amelia, and Graham in China

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/images/attachement/jpg/site1/20081124/0013729e42ea0a94431220.jpg

More on the Chinese Economy

The People's Bank of China, the country's central bank, decided to reduce the interest rates by a massive 1.08 percentage points from Thursday, in a desperate effort to jumpstart capital investments, boost housing sale and propel domestic consumption, amid an increasing chilly economic winter of the world.

A woman walks in front of the headquarters of China's central bank, the People's Bank of China, in Beijing in this file photo dated October 8, 2008. The central bank decided to reduce the interest rate by a massive 1.08 percentage points from Thursday, in a desperate effort to jumpstart capital investments, boost housing sale and propel domestic consumption, amid an increasing chilly economic winter of the world. [Agencies]

The 108 basis points reduction, announced by the official website of the central bank, is unseen in more than 10 years. Previously, the bank has resorted to piecemeal rate hike or reduction of only 27 basis points to finetune the economy.

Special coverage:
Chinese Economy

Related readings:
Expert: slowdown will continue to hit fiscal revenue
Chinese premier calls for support of SMEs
Wen urges companies to keep confidence amid turmoil
New measures unveiled to spur growth

In the meantime, the bank said that the deposit reserve ratio, by which a commercial bank is required to deposit a portion of its collected savings in the central bank, will be cut by 1 percent to 16 percent. The reserve requirement for the country's smaller local banks is made even lower to 14 percent.

The measure, effective on December 5, will increase cash supply on the money market. Although China now has a relatively fluent flowing of credit, the reduction will add to liquidity and benefit the middle and small-sized businesses, which used to be shunned by bank credit in previous economic slowdowns.


The latest drastic slashing of interest rates, coupled with the massive 4-trillion yuan (US$586 billion) fiscal stimulus package announced by China's State Council, the cabinet, earlier this month, is to weigh heavily on the worldwide collective efforts in blocking a rapid slowdown of the global economy, Chinese analysts said.

The rates reduction was the largest since the central bank cut the rate by 1.44 percentage points in October 1997, at the height of the Asian financial crisis.

It might buttress investors' confidence on the stock markets.

The gains in the Chinese equity markets moderated in the morning session on Thursday to less than four percent after opening sharply higher to stand above the 2,000 mark, boosted by China’s biggest interest-rate cut in 11 years. The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index surged more than six percent at the opening to 2012.69, while the smaller Shenzhen index also gained nearly six percent to open at 6923.37 points.

The monetary policy revision, which cuts the yearly borrowing rate from 6.66 percent to 5.58 percent, and the annual saving rate from 3.60 percent to 2.52 percent, is a clear signal by Beijing that China is no longer harassed by inflation. On the contrary, economists caution that with prices of all commodities dropping fast, and many labor-intensive factories closing doors, China is facing a likely deflation, which is an economist's nightmare.

Xia Bing, a senior economist with the State Council Development and Research Center, a government think tank, said that the country suffered from up to 3 years' grisly deflation in the aftermath of the 1997-98 Asian financial meltdown. It was former Premier Zhu Rongji who sat at the steering and guided the country to weather the storm then.

The National Bureau of Statistics reported earlier that China's consumer price index, a major gauge of inflation, eased to 4.0 percent in October, from 4.6 percent in September and 4.9 percent in August. The index for November, to be announced in mid December, is expected to drop to around 3.2 percent, according to most estimates.

Chinese economists believe that the central bank could trim the interest rate further at the end of this year, or early in 2009, if the economy does not show evident signs of revival.

More on the Chinese Economy

The People's Bank of China, the country's central bank, decided to reduce the interest rates by a massive 1.08 percentage points from Thursday, in a desperate effort to jumpstart capital investments, boost housing sale and propel domestic consumption, amid an increasing chilly economic winter of the world.

A woman walks in front of the headquarters of China's central bank, the People's Bank of China, in Beijing in this file photo dated October 8, 2008. The central bank decided to reduce the interest rate by a massive 1.08 percentage points from Thursday, in a desperate effort to jumpstart capital investments, boost housing sale and propel domestic consumption, amid an increasing chilly economic winter of the world. [Agencies]

The 108 basis points reduction, announced by the official website of the central bank, is unseen in more than 10 years. Previously, the bank has resorted to piecemeal rate hike or reduction of only 27 basis points to finetune the economy.

Special coverage:
Chinese Economy

Related readings:
Expert: slowdown will continue to hit fiscal revenue
Chinese premier calls for support of SMEs
Wen urges companies to keep confidence amid turmoil
New measures unveiled to spur growth

In the meantime, the bank said that the deposit reserve ratio, by which a commercial bank is required to deposit a portion of its collected savings in the central bank, will be cut by 1 percent to 16 percent. The reserve requirement for the country's smaller local banks is made even lower to 14 percent.

The measure, effective on December 5, will increase cash supply on the money market. Although China now has a relatively fluent flowing of credit, the reduction will add to liquidity and benefit the middle and small-sized businesses, which used to be shunned by bank credit in previous economic slowdowns.


The latest drastic slashing of interest rates, coupled with the massive 4-trillion yuan (US$586 billion) fiscal stimulus package announced by China's State Council, the cabinet, earlier this month, is to weigh heavily on the worldwide collective efforts in blocking a rapid slowdown of the global economy, Chinese analysts said.

The rates reduction was the largest since the central bank cut the rate by 1.44 percentage points in October 1997, at the height of the Asian financial crisis.

It might buttress investors' confidence on the stock markets.

The gains in the Chinese equity markets moderated in the morning session on Thursday to less than four percent after opening sharply higher to stand above the 2,000 mark, boosted by China’s biggest interest-rate cut in 11 years. The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index surged more than six percent at the opening to 2012.69, while the smaller Shenzhen index also gained nearly six percent to open at 6923.37 points.

The monetary policy revision, which cuts the yearly borrowing rate from 6.66 percent to 5.58 percent, and the annual saving rate from 3.60 percent to 2.52 percent, is a clear signal by Beijing that China is no longer harassed by inflation. On the contrary, economists caution that with prices of all commodities dropping fast, and many labor-intensive factories closing doors, China is facing a likely deflation, which is an economist's nightmare.

Xia Bing, a senior economist with the State Council Development and Research Center, a government think tank, said that the country suffered from up to 3 years' grisly deflation in the aftermath of the 1997-98 Asian financial meltdown. It was former Premier Zhu Rongji who sat at the steering and guided the country to weather the storm then.

The National Bureau of Statistics reported earlier that China's consumer price index, a major gauge of inflation, eased to 4.0 percent in October, from 4.6 percent in September and 4.9 percent in August. The index for November, to be announced in mid December, is expected to drop to around 3.2 percent, according to most estimates.

Chinese economists believe that the central bank could trim the interest rate further at the end of this year, or early in 2009, if the economy does not show evident signs of revival.

Business in China...World Economy

BEIJING - Chinese President Hu Jintao said Friday the top priority of the country's 2009 agenda on economic development is to maintain a "stable and relatively fast growth", amid the grim global economic downturn.

"We will ensure a quality and fast growth of the national economy next year," Hu said while sitting down with personages outside the ruling Communist Party of China (CPC) to seek their advice on the country's economic development.

Related readings:
Macro Economy: China's CPI projected to slide further
Top planner: Pressure on economy increasing
Mainland scholar confident of economy
Premier seeks advice from experts on economy

He said the country would pursue an "all-rounded and sustainable" growth that stresses both quality and efficiency.

The world's fastest growing economy saw its growth slow sharply to nine percent year on year in the third quarter, the slowest pace in five years, as a result of slower export and investment growth.

The president said the country would continue to practice "active" fiscal and "moderately loose" monetary policies next year, and would in the meantime strengthen and improve macro controls according to changing conditions.

Such proactive policies is a transition made earlier this month against adverse global economic conditions from the earlier "prudent" fiscal and "tight" monetary policies aimed at curbing inflation and averting overheating.

He stressed the importance of boosting domestic demands, saying the country would bring consumption to play a bigger role in driving the economic growth, and the expansion of consumer spending would receive more prominent emphasis.

China would also increase its investment in rural areas, agriculture, and farmers "by a large extent" to guarantee the development of the agricultural sector and ensure the output of grain and other farm produce, according to the president.

Hu said the country would continue to promote economic restructuring. China has been working to reduce its heavy reliance on exports and investment over the past years.

"The country needs to take the challenges of the ongoing global financial crisis as opportunities to accelerate industrial restructuring to create new growth and foster other competitive edges," he said.

China would continue with its reform and opening up, Hu said. "The country will lose no chance to introduce reforms that can promote the development at the right time, and will take note of bringing the market into full play in allocating resources."

The country would actively develop the export-oriented sector and step up the diversification of exporting markets, Hu added.

Thanksgiving Shopping...Not Too Bad.

Holiday shopping season off to modest start
Sunday November 30, 6:15 pm ET
By Anne D'Innocenzio, AP Retail Writer

Holiday season off to modest start as shoppers focus on bargains, small-ticket items NEW YORK (AP) -- Deep discounts on everything from sweaters to TVs drove shoppers out of hibernation for the Thanksgiving weekend, but the buying was tempered and sales for the traditional start of the holiday season appear at best in line with stores' low expectations.

ADVERTISEMENT
The sales receipts, however, came at the expense of profits, and merchants are facing a big challenge exciting financially strapped shoppers for the rest of the season that's expected to be the weakest in decades.

The nation's retailers -- who since mid-September have suffered from the most dramatic falloff in spending in decades amid a ballooning financial crisis -- opened their stores as early as midnight on Thursday, holding their breath wondering if shoppers would show up for the pre-dawn specials. But while the crowds did come out, analysts say they were thinner than last year, and according to some accounts, business fell off sharply for the remainder of the weekend.

Shoppers were also focused on bargains and smaller-ticket, practical items like blenders and video games, as they worry about layoffs, tightening credit and shrinking retirement funds.

Even online spending, once a bright spot in retailing, has been hit hard by economic woes in recent months. ComScore, an Internet research company, reported Sunday that online spending was up a modest 2 percent for the combined Thanksgiving Day and Friday, compared with the year-ago period.

"I've cut my budget in half. I usually have a spending limit of $50 per person, but this year, it's $25," said Laura Bentley, of Miami, who was at the local Dolphin Mall on Saturday, her first day of holiday shopping.

Manno and Poun Sam of Houston, who had just purchased some toys, including a Crayola coloring game and a stuffed animal, at a Wal-Mart store in suburban Houston on Saturday, said they were trying to stay within a $500 budget.

"We're not buying anything fancy," said Manno Sam, an assembly-line worker. "We can't afford it."

New York-based retail consultant Walter Loeb said he expects sales for the weekend to be below year-ago levels, based on discussions this weekend with key executives from discounters and department stores.

But he added, "It wasn't as bad as some feared. ... People were buying but they bought cheap, and the results were not as good."

Marshal Cohen, chief industry analyst at NPD Group, a market research group, who had a network of analysts at 53 mall locations across the country this weekend, said that "the holiday started off with some promise but quickly moved to concern."

"It could have been a disaster, but it wasn't," he said, noting that he estimates that the weekend's sales were at best even with the same holiday weekend a year ago.

Karen MacDonald, a spokeswoman at Taubman Centers Inc., which operates 24 malls in 11 states, said that based on a sampling of malls, business on Friday was anywhere from unchanged to up mid-single digits. But on Saturday, sales were unchanged to down slightly.

"Friday was encouraging, but Saturday wasn't as good as we hoped," she said.

But Toys R Us Chief Executive Jerry Storch reported on Sunday that customer traffic was at least as strong this past weekend as the Thanksgiving weekend a year ago, and said he was "definitely pleased with sales."

Geoffrey Webb, director of advertising and sales promotions at K-B Toys Inc., said that sales for the weekend were equal or slightly better than last year.

"We are very encouraged by the response," he said.

A more complete sales picture of how the Thanksgiving shopping weekend fared won't be known until Thursday when the nation's retailers report November same-store sales, or sales at stores opened at least a year.

According to preliminary figures released Saturday by ShopperTrak RCT, a research firm that tracks total retail sales at more than 50,000 outlets, sales rose 3 percent to $10.6 billion on Friday from the Black Friday a year ago.

ShopperTrak RCT is expected to release data for the combined Friday and Saturday period on Monday. Bill Martin, ShopperTrak's co-founder, said he wasn't sure if the momentum was sustained through the rest of the weekend.

The day after Thanksgiving -- dubbed Black Friday because it historically was the day when a surge of shoppers helped stores break into profitability for the full year -- has been fading in importance.

In recent years, merchants have been pushing earlier the sales and expanded hours that were typically reserved for that day. This year, in a desperate bid to pull in shoppers, stores were even more aggressive, offering discounts of up to 70 percent in the days leading to the weekend, and widening those price cuts for a broader array of merchandise for the early morning deals.

Aside from the economy, however, Black Friday's early morning madness has also lost some of its steam because of the abundance of bargains that shoppers can find on the Web. Cohen also noted there's less frenzy this year because, with the exception of some isolated hard-to-find hits like Fisher-Price's Elmo Live and Nintendo's "Wii Fit" exercise game, there isn't a particular gift that's a "big standout."

While Black Friday isn't a predictor of the holiday season, it does act as a barometer of consumers' willingness to spend. Complicating matters is a shorter buying season -- 27 days between Black Friday and Christmas -- instead of 32 last year, putting more pressure on retailers.

Clearly economic woes played a role in how shoppers bought this weekend. K-B's Webb noted that consumers were focusing on bargains like a $30 My Happy Family dollhouse, which offered furniture and figures, as part of the retailer's supervalue program. Taubman's MacDonald said that practical items did well, like cookware and small home appliances, but clothing and electronics also were popular because they were deeply discounted.

The managers of Dillard's and Macy's departments stores at Greenspoint Mall in north Houston both said weekend crowds met expectations, though shoppers seemed to be more bargain-hungry than in recent years.

At the mall's Macy's, one of a dozen in the Houston area, clothing, jewelry and home items -- but not high-end brands -- were selling well, said manager Ron Misrack.

"People seem to be going to promotional items," Misrack said. "If you look at our books, you can see the specials, and people seem to be going for those items."